Morrison is caught between Biden and Barnaby in developing climate policy for Glasgow, according to the Grattan on Friday.

 

Morrison is caught between Biden and Barnaby in developing climate policy for Glasgow, according to the Grattan on Friday.

“The data is overwhelming: climate change is an existential threat to our lives and economies.”

Kevin Rudd, around the year 2007. No, it was Joe Biden this week, when he toured places devastated by Hurricane Ida, which claimed many lives and left a trail of devastation in its wake.

Climate sceptics and laggards received a stern message from US President Barack Obama. “The people crying that we're interfering with free enterprise by doing something about climate change don't live there.”

Extreme weather has hit areas with more than 100 million people in the United States this summer alone, according to Biden. Looking ahead to the November Glasgow climate summit, he underlined that the United States was committed to dealing with climate change and that “the rest of the world must go with us.”

Officials in Australia took note of Biden's speech.

With COVID out of control in New South Wales and Victoria, and worse to come when lockdowns are loosened, Scott Morrison is besieged by immediate health and economic difficulties.

“It's critical that our country lives with this virus,” he remarked on Thursday. The following stage will be challenging. That's about to happen in New South Wales, and it's about to happen in Victoria. Both states are aware that when they relax up, hospitals will be put under strain, and case numbers will grow, which will be difficult to manage.”

Apart from the ongoing COVID issue, which threatens another technical recession, Morrison will spend the coming weeks reshaping Australia's climate policy in preparation for the G8 summit in Glasgow.

Time is running out before the international climate meeting. The Americans will be keeping a close eye on Australia's policy development and tightening the screws.

Biden's phone call to Morrison last week, which was focused on Afghanistan, ANZUS, and the upcoming QUAD summit, did not discuss climate change. However, when Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Foreign Minister Marise Payne meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin for next week's AUSMIN meetings in Washington, it will be one of the topics on the table.

The QUAD leaders summit, which includes the US, Australia, Japan, and India, is set to take place later this month in Washington; the PM's visit will provide Biden an opportunity to discuss climate policy with him.

Morrison is caught between the United States' rising pressure to raise Australia's climate ambitions and the Nationals' limited flexibility.

The federal government's oft-repeated narrative that Australia has a solid climate record – that it keeps its word and meets or surpasses targets – does not fool the Americans. “If you're going to exceed the target, why don't you set the target higher?” the Americans say in response to Australia's claim about bettering targets.

The United States considers Australia to be a low-performer and demands more. To begin, it demands a concrete commitment to net zero emissions by 2050, rather than Morrison's present dodge of net zero as soon as practicable, "ideally" by 2050. Second, it wants Australia's present restricted 2030 aim to be improved, which is a very difficult request (although another option would be for Australia to discuss some other medium-term target, such as 2035).

What Morrison commits to in his Glasgow policy will be determined in large part by what Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce is willing to accept, as well as what Joyce can deliver.

According to sources, Joyce does not want to put Morrison in a tough situation for Glasgow. The two guys are pragmatists who want to avoid conflict in the run-up to the election. However, it is unclear whether Morrison, who is autocratic by temperament, completely comprehends Joyce's condition.

Joyce was elected as the Nationals' leader in part because his supporters appreciated the way he sneered at things like the 2050 goal. In contrast to Michael McCormack, the leader he deposed, they believed he was the one who could stand up to the Liberals.

Joyce, it should be remembered, also won by a razor-thin margin and with a motley crew of supporters, including some who are sceptical of climate change. Despite the fears of many farmers and the position of farm organisations, a sizable portion of the party's constituency is concerned about the effects of global warming on bushfires, droughts, and floods and wants strong action. These days, a lot of the "base" is in mining areas.

Joyce wields power within his party, but not to the extent that Morrison wields over the Liberals.

When Joyce says he's waiting for a strategy to get to net zero emissions, the media and others correctly point out that he sounds like he's outside of government rather than being in the middle of it.

But what he really means is that, while he and Morrison have discussed their general stances, he's waiting for the expert technical detail, as well as the prices, to be given out.

The Nationals believe that the rural sector bore the brunt of prior carbon reductions, with land clearing being a key component.

They are adamant that the regions be preserved in any policy that is proposed for Glasgow.

On a more cynical level, the chance of a large financial pay-off for the regions in order to get the Nationals over the finish line exists.

That could work. However, in Joyce's opinion, a good financial deal may still be a negative electorally if fringe parties like One Nation snatched some Nationals' support on the climate issue, particularly in Queensland.

Queensland seats for the Nationals have inflated margins due to a perfect storm of variables in 2019, however Queensland is a swing state. When defending a firm 2050 target, Joyce would have to be "adroit" (in the words of one Nationals source) in his campaigning in these regions.

Joyce just cannot afford to lose seats in the upcoming election. Of course, if the Coalition lost power, a change of Nationals leader would be expected, but even if the government is restored, Joyce's leadership could be jeopardised if the Nationals' numbers plummeted.

Some of his allies (George Christensen, Sam McMahon) will not be in the next parliament, so the capable, smooth-talking David Littleproud, who is currently deputy leader, would be a strong contender, but others may also be interested.