It is
not the first time that the results of the elections in Pakistan have come out
late. But it must have been the first time in recent history that mobile phone
networks were down across the country on election day and the following night,
and complete results were not available even after 24 hours.
The
events of the past two days seem to have deepened the already existing
divisions and political rifts.
There
is confusion among the people on the issue of who will be the next government.
Already trust in state institutions is waning.
Many
users on social media are seen criticizing the Election Commission and the
caretaker government, on the other hand, the army and the judiciary are also
being held responsible for this chaos.
But
before answering the question of what will be the result of this division,
confusion and public anger, let's take a look at the last twenty-four hours.
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What happened in the general elections of Pakistan so far?
The
voting process was stopped at 5 pm on Thursday and the announcement of the
results was awaited. After six o'clock, inconclusive and unofficial results
began to emerge from the few polling stations where counting had been
completed.
These
preliminary results surprised everyone as contrary to expectations, an independent
candidate supported by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf was leading. However, within a
few hours, the result was stopped.
On this
occasion, the discussion on social and mainstream media continued with
questions and doubts.
People's
eyes were on the Election Commission of Pakistan, but it was also looking
helpless. Mobile networks were not restored even at 12 midnight and the results
of counting of votes were not coming out.
In such
a situation, the candidates and supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf announced
their victory on social media and termed the delay in the results as 'an
attempt at rigging'.
On the
other hand, there was complete silence in the campus of Pakistan Muslim
League-N. He was hoping for a clear lead in the elections this time, but according
to the unofficial and inconclusive results that came out till midnight, former
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif himself was trailing PTI-held Yasmin Rashid by a
large margin.
The
Election Commission announced at one point in the night that the results would
start coming in half an hour, but there were no details on the website of the
Election Commission even till three in the morning. The same announcement was
made again in the morning and it was said that the results would be out by 10
o'clock, but this did not happen.
On the
other hand, the caretaker government was seen congratulating the nation on the
peaceful conduct of the elections and the interior ministry defended its
decision to shut down mobile networks.
Earlier,
the government had also announced that mobile networks will not be shut down on
election day. However, just ten minutes before voting began, the Ministry of
Interior shut down mobile networks across the country due to the threat of
terrorism.
The
Election Commission explained that their new system for collating the results
could not work because there was no internet access due to the shutdown of
mobile networks. But before this statement, the Election Commission had also
announced that this new system will be functional even without internet.
Election Commission and 'Establishment' under criticism
Pakistan's
military establishment has become the target of most criticism in all this
situation. Since last night, especially the candidates supported by Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaaf and supporters of the party have been accusing the
establishment of rigging the election process.
Shoaib
Shaheen, a candidate supported by PTI from Islamabad, while talking to BBC,
said that the judiciary, which can take immediate notice of any incident, did
not take notice of the shutdown of mobile networks. He did not take notice of
the (alleged) rigging that took place last night, nor did he take notice of why
the results are taking so long.'
Shoaib
Shaheen claims that he was winning by a huge margin in the federal capital
Islamabad till last night but was defeated this morning. They blame the
establishment for this rigging. "This is all a trick of those who are the
strongest here and want to win someone else, it is the work of the
establishment." He is not alone in making accusations of rigging, but many
other independent candidates like him. They are repeating the same accusation.
No
evidence has been presented by Shoaib Shaheen, while the staff of the Election
Commission is currently busy compiling the results instead of answering the
allegations.
After
all these events that happened in the last two days, the already existing
divisions and political rifts seem to be deepening.
Speaking
to BBC, senior journalist and analyst Asma Shirazi says that political parties
and institutions have not learned anything from past mistakes this time too.
"We
thought things would be right now, learning from the mistakes of the
past," she says. These elections were peaceful, people trusted the system
and went out to vote. He gave his response in a slip, which was welcome. This
is the success of democracy.
But
when you suddenly stop the results and the results start to change, it all
shows. Punjab's results slowly stalled and then the situation changed.
He said
that it has raised questions as to what is the force that has the power to
change public opinion. And this has been happening for seventy-five years, not
once or twice. There are objections and questions because this process has been
made suspicious.
Michael
Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think tank
in Washington, says, "I think the reason for the fear that the military
will intervene in the electoral process at the very last moment for its own benefit,
and that interest, is very clear." Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf should be
prevented from coming into the government directly.
Michael
Kugelman says that during the election results, there were 'early signs of PTI
success, and then suddenly the delayed announcement of the results, the
complete silence of the Election Commission, and then the official results in
which the military's preferred party formed a political coalition. Apparently,
it all foreshadows a last-minute rigging.'
He
believes that Pakistan is heading towards an outcome that does not reflect the
will of the people. "This will be another blow to Pakistan's already
fragile democracy."
Will there be stability in the country after these elections?
At
present, this seems difficult to do as the people and political parties still
seem to be divided.
According
to Asma Shirazi, stability should come. Everyone should decide to sit down.
There was a tough competition in Punjab but it is also a fact that one party is
winning. But now let's move on to the Grand Dialogue. If it doesn't happen, it
will go on like a circle and we will go round and round.'
He
suggested that now Imran Khan should also speak. If people come out on the
streets not accepting the results, then there will be negotiations and
discussions.
But according to Michael Kugelman, "it's hard."
I don't
think these elections will bring stability in Pakistan. This will further
divide a nation that is already polarized. Pakistan is currently not only
facing a severe economic crisis, but terrorism is also increasing again.
He says
that PTI has a large base in such situations. And the party is also suffering
from anger and regret. Because his voters participated in the elections in
large numbers and then the results of their elections were withheld. And now
they are facing their bitter opponents. Pakistan has to deal with public anger.
It is facing a real threat of insurgency.
There
is also the question of how an unstable Pakistan will be perceived by the world
and what it means to global powers.
It
should be noted that Pakistan is a nuclear power and is located in a region
that is regionally important.
Pakistan's
relations with Afghanistan have grown bitter, while many wars have been fought
with India. Recently, Iran's missile attack and Pakistan's retaliatory action
once again made the country the center of global attention. Terrorism is on the
rise while relations with the US continue to fluctuate and China is a close
friend of Pakistan.
According
to Asma Shirazi, it is important to make the country stable for the people of
Pakistan itself as well as the rest of the world. According to him, Pakistan is
a country whose border areas are not peaceful, the border of Afghanistan is
under the control of India and the Taliban, and on the other hand, bitterness
has recently emerged with Iran. Pakistan has a nuclear power which has always
been a sticking point for western powers. In such a case, it is necessary that
there should be political stability in the country. And the process of
elections is for political stability in the country.
Asma
Shirazi says that she hopes that after these elections, stability will finally
come to the country. However, Michael Kugelman disagrees.
He says
that 'Pakistan's election and political instability seems to be a small thing
in the midst of global conflicts going on around the world at the moment, but
it is a country with a large number of young people. The country's borders are
disputed, there are economic pressures and growing terrorism. On the other
hand, there is a deepening divide between the state and society. This election
crisis has increased the problems of the country.
From
the results so far, it is seen that the next government in the country will
also be formed from coalition parties and no one party will have a clear
advantage.
Analysts
believe that this is an important opportunity for political parties to come
together and negotiate to devise a system that will ensure transparency in the
upcoming elections.
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